10th April 2007

 

From one of the main Bolivian exporters we heard that this year's crop is a bit short and as a result this particular shipper does not want to offer anything anymore due to this uncertainty. Spot goods are hard to come by and since shipments are delayed, prices both FOB as well as ex warehouse have increased and we do not see any reason why this should change short term. Fob quotations, definitely no firm offers, at Usd 2,20 per lb and Ex warehouse Rotterdam, one should calculate with Usd 2,25-2,30 per lb.

 

February 2007

 

27th February - Floods are being reported in Bolivia due to heavy rains. Authorities are evacuating inhabitants of the town of Trinidad which is close to Cochabamba. Many roads are inaccessible or damaged and bridges have collapsed reason why raw material can not reach the factories and finished product can not leave the factories to go to the ports to be shipped to overseas customers. General feeling is that spot will remain tight with prices probably going higher and as long as shipments can not take place, prices for forward shipments will also increase.

 

2nd February Nothing available from origins where suppliers have completely withdrawn from the market. Consequently FOB prices continue to go up with indications from dealers at Usd 2,00 per lb.

Spot material tight and at the same time no new crop arrivals available yet make this a somewhat

nervous market for the time being.

 

January 2007

 

30th January - Market active with prices moving upwards. There is buying interest from both the US as well as the European market. At the same time however origin producers are in the midst of buying new crop raw material hence prices are moving up slightly. Latest traded FOB price for new crop is Usd 1,75 per lb.

 

8th January - Market quiet with a slightly firmer undertone. Not because there is buying interest but apparently because at this moment in time, it seems not very easy to buy raw new crop material at sensible levels in comparison to the international market hence shippers do not have much to sell. Current crop is being quoted at Usd 1,60 per lb FOB and new crop for shipment February onwards at Usd 1,70 per lb FOB.

 

17th October 2006

 

Market has been very quiet and nothing indicates that this will change short term. Current crop is available at Usd 1,80 per lb FOB. Shippers have been holding back a little in anticipation of increased demand from the USA but so far to our knowledge this has not (yet) materialized. Early reports about next year's crop thus far have been good and although premature the market could enjoy softer prices for the months ahead. 

 

15th August 2006

 

Market continues to be very quiet. Nothing really to report other than the fact that normally the busier months are ahead of us and this could stir up some buying and selling. From origin we hear prices basis FOB at Usd 2,15 per lb for this year and Usd 2,25 per lb FOB for shipment as of March/April 2007. As mentioned 2 weeks ago the drop in imports into the USA during the first 5 months of 2006 in comparison to the first 5 months of 2005 of 45,5% is very significant although at this point in time we do not know the reason for this. Perhaps the much higher prices of one year ago have something to do with this or perhaps there were plenty of stocks in the USA reason why importers did not have to import much. If however this drop in imports is structural the Brazil nut market may have an oversupply situation for the months ahead. 

 

31st July 2006

 

The following was published in the Peanut and Tree Nut Newsletter of 28th July 2006:

USA Imports of Brazilnuts during the period January - May

2005: 9,197,000 pounds / 2006: 5,015,000 pounds - down 45.5%

 

28th June 2006

 

Nothing happening in the market place. No shipment or delivery problems to report. All is very quiet. Possibly after summer holidays, the market will see increased demand which could lead to higher prices since whereas supply and demand seem to be balanced now, this could change come September. Prices still around Usd 2,20 per lb FOB. Spot parcels in Rotterdam around Usd 2,30 per lb ex warehouse.

 

18th May 2006

 

Market is quiet which is logical since this is not really the time of the year when a lot of Brazils are being bought. Pretty difficult to say where exactly the market is since whereas re-sellers are quoting at around Usd 2,20 per lb FOB for nearby shipment, origin shippers are convinced the market should ask for much higher levels due to lower availability of Brazils.

 

12th April 2006

 

Offers are hard to come by and this is still because of the fact that Bolivian shippers are receiving raw material into their factories much slower than normal due to the bad road conditions. The weather in Bolivia has been very bad ever since February and for instance the road from Cobija to La Paz is closed because of this. Shippers are trying to fulfil their existing outstanding contracts and can not enter into any new ones for the time being. Prices remain at levels of Usd 2,35 per lb FOB.

 

March 2006

 

21st March - Prices continue to go up and this is simply explained in the fact that so far it has been impossible for the shippers to get raw material in. Apparently the weather has been so terrible that for about 3-4 weeks the factories have not received any new material hence offers are hard to come by.    Just before the weather turning bad, prices had tumbled to levels around Usd 1,75 per lb but as now has become clear this was due to the huge carry-over of last year. There are reports that this carry-over was anywhere from 150 to 200 fcls. Current quotes Usd 2,30 per lb FOB.

 

10th March - Market bounced back a little bit due to the severe rains Bolivia has been having. As one shipper pointed out the roads from the fields to the plants and from the plants to La Paz are currently impassable.  Therefore, raw material is coming slower than usual and shippers do not have material to cover any more sales at this time. As a result prices went up to Usd 1,80 per lb FOB.

 

28th February 2006

 

More and more talks about heavy rainfall the last couple of weeks which are causing some transport problems. Furthermore the installation of the new government is going very slowly and as a result there is uncertainty about the country being politically stable. Prices however continue to be very weak and without demand picking up significantly, we do not see any reason why prices would rebounce.

 

31st January 2006

 

The Brazil nut market is relatively quiet which is about normal for this time of the year but in comparison to previous 12-18 months the market is very weak. Prices for new crop for February/March 2006 shipment have come down to levels around Usd 2,00 per lb FOB and our feeling is that with some firm buying interest it is possible to buy even cheaper. Why have prices come down so significantly? Hard to tell. We cannot imagine that the crop is that much bigger. Consumption rose considerably the past 2 years because of new diets in the USA and the awareness of the general public that Brazil nuts contain selenium of which we need a minimum of 75 micrograms per day.  Rumour has it that the Bolivian and Brazilian shippers are having a huge carry-over from last year, in excess of 200 containers, and they started offering lower and lower and etc.  We feel that without any buying interest prices will either stay at current levels or go down even further. However stocks are relatively low in both the USA as well as Europe and once the Americans start coming back into the market we could see prices firm up again.

 

29th November 2005

 

Market quiet with prices slowly but surely coming under pressure. Apparently in the Uk nearby interest keeps prices for stocks relatively high with more demand for Mediums which are now about Usd 0,10 per lb more expensive than the Midgets. Earlier worries about the drought in the Amazon rain forest effecting the upcoming crop have eased and prices for new crop are somewhat softer again.

 

October 2005

 

25th October - Market very very quiet and basically unchanged. At this point in time we can assume that the expected buying interest from the USA for shipments still this year will not materialize reason why we feel the market could come under some pressure. On the other hand however the Brazilian Amazon forest is going through a severe drought and it remains to be seen if this will have its effect on the next Brazil nut crop.

 

6th October - Market still very quiet and although people are still awaiting buying interest from the USA this does not appear to be happening any time soon. Spot parcels offered between Usd 3 and Usd 3,25 per lb and for shipment October-January prices remain pretty much around Usd 3,00 per lb FOB. New crop still offered around Usd 2,50 per lb but little to no activity here either.

 

2nd September - Market little more active although not wild yet. Prices have fallen considerably and perhaps that is what some buyers were waiting for. Despite the fact that origin shippers are still not eager to offer current crop, prices have gone below Usd 3,00 per lb. Some dealers still expect American buyers to come back into the market which could lead to higher prices again. New crop is being offered at Usd 2, 50 per lb FOB based on anybody's guess since there is nothing to say yet about the size or the quality of the new crop.

 

10th August 2005

 

Market has been very dull the last couple of weeks. Prices are all over the place. Whereas apparently the market in the UK is still very high, prices in Rotterdam have come down. Latest price traded for spot material was Usd 3,45 but latest price traded for shipment during September 2005 Usd 3,10 per lb FOB. Forward positions are being offered around Usd 2,90-Usd 3,00 per lb FOB but mind you these prices are from resellers. Origin sellers are either withdrawn or not eager at all to indicate prices for forward. The market for Brazils will become more active in the next few weeks/months and we reckon this could result in higher prices again because of the fact that there does not seem to be a balance between supply and demand this year. Demand exceeded supply last year and this year is not different.

 

15th June 2005

 

A new President was appointed in Bolivia and new elections will be held in the near future.. Very important is that the leader of the opposition gave his support to this new President reason why for the time being at least things have calmed down in the country. When shipments of Brazils will resume remains to be seen since obviously there are a lot of other issues still to be sorted out. The political situation continues to be fragile and needs further monitoring.

 

7th June 2005

 

Situation is getting more complicated and seems to be completely out of control. Political unrest in Bolivia is the reason why Brazil nut prices are going up like there is no tomorrow. The Bolivian president has announced to step down and new general elections will be held. At this moment in time there are general strikes and protest demonstrations and because of the strikes no new merchandise is being shipped out of Bolivia. With a pipeline which is already empty and demand growing, spot parcels have been traded at Usd 3,65 per lb and nearby afloat parcels are being offered at Usd 3,50 per lb FOB. Origin shippers not at all participating simply because they cannot due to the circumstances. Prices likely to go up even further.

 

20th May 2005

 

Market quiet but firm. Nearby parcels afloat were offered around Usd 3,00 per lb and spot parcels were even at Usd 3,25 per lb Free on truck still. Whereas it was expected that afloat new crop parcels would fill the pipeline to consequently take the pressure of the market, prices continue to be very firm.   Availability for forward shipments extremely limited as shippers are already having difficulty fulfilling their outstanding obligations. Continuous rumours about huge defaults to USA importers keep this market nervous.

 

12th April 2005

Spot parcels were traded at Usd 3,25 per lb and spot availability is still very tight. New crop shipments which were supposed to be already available in the European as well as the American markets are still on their way which has to do with the fact that goods these days are being feedered from Arica to Callao from where goods are being loaded onto the ocean going vessels. This whole exercise is taking a few weeks extra. Raw material prices still very high which is reflected in today’s kernel prices which are around Usd 2,35 per lb FOB for nearby shipment and Usd 2,25 per lb FOB for forward shipments. Demand has been in line with last year.

 

16th March 2005

 

Raw material prices for Brazils are rocketing, Bolivians and Peruvians have made sales at higher prices for new crop, and are now desperate to buy raw material at any price. Their problem is that they have sold shipments for the second half of the year, and do not have the working capital to secure the raw material at this moment in time. While the crop in Brazil is of reasonable size, the Bolivian crop is much smaller than last year. Demand for Brazils is up about 35% on two years ago (mostly into the USA as a result of the success of the Atkins diet). It is being reported that European as well as USA importers have not bought much yet.

 

14th February 2005

 

No real fresh news as far as the Brazil nut kernel market is concerned in comparison to our previous report. Apparently Bolivia exported 960,000 cartons last year which seems a lot but there are two remarkable things to notice out of this, 1. the market easily absorbed this quantity and 2.despite this quantity the market reached historically high prices. With this in mind we feel that although market prices for forward positions can still come under pressure, it remains to be seen if in the foreseeable future the market will go back to levels well below Usd 2,00 per lb FOB

 

January 2005

 

31st January - It seems that as mentioned previously prices for nearby new crop shipments have stabilized however on forward shipments there are rumours about lower prices. It is remarkable to see that the shorts on nearby positions (the shippers) are struggling to get the raw material reason why prices for these Brazils are stabilizing. For forward positions the shorts (the dealers) are driving this market down by continuing to sell at lower levels. In money terms, March/April Usd 2,50 per lb FOB and August/September Usd 2,30 per lb FOB.

 

14th January - Prices have not only stabilized, they have also gone up again for new crop. Usd 2,60 per lb was traded and at the moment there is a lot of buying interest in the market. Origin suppliers have sold significant quantities already on new crop which is another reason why we think that for the time being prices will remain at these kind of levels since suppliers will have to compete for the raw material.

 

15th December 2004 - Reports about possible delays on new crop since Bolivian collectors are having huge conflicts with Bolivian processors on price agreements for collecting the crop. Prices have been coming down steadily over the past few weeks but it seems are now stable at Usd 2,50 per lb FOB for May/June onwards. Earlier shipments, March and April, are being offered at Usd 2,95 per lb FOB. Spot still tight with offers at around Usd 3,95 per lb FOT.

 

October 2004

 

29th October - Prices all over the place. Unconfirmed reports about Usd 4,20 per lb FOB traded and latest FOT Rotterdam offers range from Usd 4,05 to Usd 4,18 per lb. Another report suggests that the biggest UK retailer saw demand pick-up by 50% which is partly caused by the fact that Brazils at the supermarket shelves are still priced at last years levels. Another reason is the good publicity Brazils received over the last 12 months which triggered people to consume more Brazils. Although in general traders and shippers think that the new crop looks good and consequently prices could come down, they are not eager to offer new crop below Usd 2,60 per lb FOB for July onwards shipment.

 

19th October - Market quiet. Prices remain at levels around Usd 3,75 per lb FOT Rotterdam and Usd 3,70 per lb FOB for shipment during November/December. New crop prices still at Usd 2,75 per lb FOB. For the time being buyers are reluctant and prefer to wait as long as they can. Uncertainty about future price development is the main reason why shippers as well as traders are also reluctant for the time being. Most of them are just trying to fulfil current obligations which is proving to be difficult for some of them.

 

 

1st October - Market relatively quiet. Bids for spot material at Usd 3,75 per lb however there is hardly anything available. On shipment basis we have offers at Usd 3,70 per lb FOB which reportedly was already traded. On new crop further business was done at Usd 2,60 per lb FOB and from origin we understand that reliable shippers are further indicating Usd 2,75 per lb FOB.

 

September 2004

 

22nd September - Large and Mediums Brazilnuts were traded at Usd 3,50 per lb FOB for October/November shipment. New crop for shipment April/May, May/June and June/July was traded at Usd 2,55 per lb FOB. Origin shippers so far reluctant to offer new crop. As mentioned current levels are good opportunity to start negotiating new crop shipments however what the discount current crop/new crop should be is anybody's guess.

 

16th September - Last traded level Usd 3,75 per lb FOT. Buyers still looking for nearby material which is hardly available.

 

9th September - It starts to sound like a broken record but the market has hit another historically high price when Usd 3,50 per lb FOB traded. We do have enquiries from buyers for material both on the spot as well as on shipment basis and invite anyone to make us an offer either /or. New crop is being talked about but it seems dealers are reluctant to offer. On one hand current prices are a nice starting point for next year but since nobody knows where prices for the current market can go to, people are afraid that they will be selling new crop too cheaply or for a shipment period which will proof to be too soon. Origin shippers will obviously try to prolong these high prices as long as possible.

 

 

1st September - Spot was traded today at Usd 3,40 per lb FOT. Further offers now at Usd 3,50 per lb. On shipment basis anybody's guess. Nothing available. 

 

August 2004